Hermain Cain: Not Your Next President, Your Next Sarah Palin
First, lets realize that the polling about Cain doesnt matter. The Florida straw poll he won recently was an event that cost $175 to attend, and only 996 people voted for Cain. If anyone thinks thats a meaningful litmus test for how Cain would fare in a major election, theyre likely being blinded by the trendy candidates unfounded media buzz. In April 2008, 8 percent of Americans told the Associated Press that they would feel uncomfortable voting for a black president. Assuming the actual number is higher due to the number of people ashamed of being forthcoming about their racism, it's likely that, when it comes right down to it, 12 to 15 percent of voters simply arent going to choose Cain over Romney or Texas Governor Rick Perry because of the color of his skin. As Charlie Cook recently wrote in National Journal, Cain really has no chance:
By traditional yardsticks of measuring a presidential candidates pote! ntial su ccess, [Cain] falls short. For hard-charging conservatives who have become disillusioned with Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, and now Perry, and who have resisted the appeal of Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, Cain may be the new flavor of the month. But without the apparatus, money, or expertise in actually winning a partys nomination, its doubtful that he can go very far.
If we all agree that Cain cant win, the media spectacle surrounding his candidacy starts to take a familiar shape. His tendency to put his foot in his mouth when discussing sensitive topics, his amateurish attempts at policymaking (e.g. the 999 plan), the embarrassing incidents from his past life coming back to haunt himin deference to those who dont remember, these were all hallmarks of another candidate just three years ago, a female governor of Alaska with a goofy lexicon and a wide-eyed smile that simultaneously said, Howd I get here? and I dont ever wanna' leave!
Like Palin, Cain is approaching his run at high office with the kind of aw-shucks country logic some voters and Fox News personalities love to hear. Hes a character with charisma to spareeven I like him, to an extentand thats endearing, especially in the initial stages of a presidential campaign. But, also like Palin, Cain often seems wildly unprepared for a job as complex as President of the! United States. That unpreparedness will prove to be his unraveling. Because while straw poll voters might get a kick out of cheering on a scrappy underdog with far-fetched ideas about overhauling the entire American tax system, the average voter is going to want to know how Cain is going to put food in their refrigerators and money in their pockets, and how hes going to keep the nation safe. Thus far, Cain has proven time and again that he cant seriously articulate how hell accomplish any of that.
The good news for Cain is that when he losesand sooner or later, hes going to losehes at least going to become even richer than he already is. There will be book deals, Fox News contracts, and speaking appearancesall of which his predecessor, Palin, has been flush with since she ran for veep and lost. Over the course of nine months between 2009 and 2010, in fact, Palin earned an estimated $12 million, far more than shed have made in office, and almost twice as much as Cains entire net worth. Heck, if hes lucky, Cain might even get a spot on Dancing with the Stars, just like Sarah Palins daughter, Bristol.
Theres so much money to be made not in office that there are theories Cain doesnt even want the presidency. Rather, he just wants to get famous and quadruple his earning power. If thats the case, at least he's not as foolish or self-indulgent as Palin, who, before she became a total media sideshow, seemed to actually believe shed have an office in the White House one day. Cain would instead be what hes been since arriving on the scene: nothing but a businessman.
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